Since 10:30 a.m.

After getting the initial feel for the market and whether it was stable or tipsy, this was the first real analysis of importance as this is a major behavioral issue for the market, it's a timing issue and it's a 3C issue.

At 10:30 a.m. today I posted, "Look for a Head-Fake Move"

"The QQQ already saw one, note the difference in volume between the Q's and the DIA and SPY, the Q's are higher as they moved above resistance (likely head fake move) and that drew in the buyers, if the SPY which is close and the DIA (also close) can put together the same moves, I'd really like to be taking profits up there, but that can also set us up for a fast moving failed move quick...A head fake move in all 3 would be ideal for a reversal."

As to why we kept getting minor 3C divergences in the least influential intraday timeframe, later in the day I suspected I knew why. In this post, Market Update I had a few ideas as to what was going on with the flat range all day (not even the typical a.m. retrace) and these very minor 3C intraday adjustments...

"There's still a lot of strangeness intraday in just about all of the averages, it looks to me like the averages are being held right in place through a series of 1 min positive and negative divergences, these are intraday and the least influential, but they often act (when positive) as consolidation areas rather than a move up."

And Here it is...

 I will note that a move above resistance in the SPY and DIA in my view is almost a certainty, there are too many reasons for them not to take out that area and perhaps that is partially what this range today is about, getting those orders piled up and in place.

Sure enough as we move to closing trade....

 On these daily charts you can see the DIA finally makes its move above the resistance level that was the subject of most of our analysis today as this is an important event.

And the SPY, which could not make it more than 1 penny above resistance earlier, Finally joined the QQQ and IWM below in making a move above resistance.

 The IWM gaps up and takes out resistance and a new closing high.

The Q's gapped above resistance first thing.

Almost every update today talked about the ned for this to happen.

Over the last couple of weeks we have been looking for this move and I recall even writing, 'It will likely be stronger than we can anticipate as the market moves like a pendulum'

The importance of taking out these levels can be summarized, but not really understood without reading the first 2 parts of the 3 part series," Understanding the Head Fake Move"

Part 1: How Technical Analysis Went from an Asset to a Trap


Part 2: Motivation

For newer members, we have been expecting and preparing for a very strong move to the upside, but at the same time we have strong evidence for a second and even third trend. We needed the first trend to play-out, we are in the middle of that now (not literally the middle), the move is much stronger than I think most would have anticipated 2 weeks ago. This also is the shorter of the 2 trends which hints at the second trend being a monster downtrend and we have some positions in place for that which were hedged with call options for this move, those are massively in the green (some over 200% since Friday).

So now we are in the right area, this doesn't mean we can't move higher, but I do have a feeling that when the reversal comes as we expect, it will be fast and surprise a lot of people, I lean toward an intraday reversal rather than a gap down reversal. I also think that the catalyst (at least according to the news because this set up was obvious weeks ago) is fully priced in to the market.

Now it's just a matter of following our signals as the market gives them to us; managing the current long trades (call options in the SPY and QQQ) and deciding on whether we want to add to short positions, perhaps start some new ones if the opportunities for a high probability/low risk trade are there.

I'll be updating again later after I go through a number of charts. 

So now we are above the area we need to be above to get good signals