Friday, January 25, 2013

NFLX Possible Trade

There's been a lot of interest in fading the NFLX earnings run, I'll get in to details later, quickly I want to get these charts out. If you take this trade it is highly speculative and only a fade.

 This is the long term 4 hour chart, the point here is NFLX looks like it has a very solid base so the move up while excessive and a huge gap, is not unwarranted, NFLX has a very good chance of making more highs in the months ahead based on this base's look.

 The 5 min chart has been overall, in line, yes I can pick out divergences that form corrections, etc, but it has been in line and this is rolled back right before the move up.


 The 5 min chart RIGHT NOW however raises the question of whether there's increasing distribution, I didn't see much yesterday, but this small leading negative makes me wonder. It's highly doubtful smart money is buying on a move like this, but they will sell in to the strength and demand and pick it up at lower prices.

 The 1 min chart has a sharper negative divergence, if it is strong enough it migrates across longer time frames and that is what it is doing here.

 The 2 min chart...

The 3 min chart and you saw the 5 min chart. You may want to wait to see if the divergences get worse and also if there's a move above a resistance range that is starting to form.

In any case, any way you look at it, it would be a fade trade only (short).

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