Opening Indications and Then Some

I'm including a little more than just opening indications because of the time and for perspective and context.

First futures and FX, I'll deal with each of the assets in greater detail as events warrant.

 This of course is ES (S&P futures from about 8 pm last night (EDT) to the capture (15 mins ago). While the positive divergence was fairly good size, the negative was as well and on the open we saw some downside, but it's much too early to expect one trend to stick.

 NASDAQ Futures and you'll notice this about the futures and FX, they were accumulated last night (you may recall how strange and interesting I thought it was last night and as you can see, the signal was 100% right on) right until midnight almost to the minute. There's a small intraday relative positive divergence in NQ not too long ago, I suspect this has to do with the NASDAQ 100 gap still open.


 Yesterday's move is a head fake move, no matter what happens from here, it caught longs and then dumped, it's a clear head fake and when you see the 43C charts for yesterday, it was clear that was the intention. As you can see the QQQ gap is still open.

EUR/USD with the same accumulation in 3C last night right until midnight again! Now we have a relative and the start of a stronger leading negative divergence.

As for the averages...

 The 1 min intraday SPY 3C chart was leading negative at yesterday's move and at the bottom in the afternoon before it turned up, there's no accumulation at all-not even on an intraday chart. As mentioned yesterday, first the Euro was used to shift momentum and then once the SPY got above resistance in the form of Wednesday's close, retail pushed it higher. The SPY saw a negative divergence on the gap up opening.

 As for the momentum indicators, I made an earlier call today of a slight intraday move which was based largely on momentum indicators as you can see the SPY was worse than the TICK so the TICK was acting as a leading indicator as well as my custom indicator at the bottom based on the TICK.

 We talked about this yesterday, "Where congestion and loitering would be", the 50 bar / 5 min moving average is closely watched y many traders so yesterday we saw the initial break ending the recent trend up, we saw the same break in my Trend Channel below. I warned yesterday that there would be moves above and below the moving average and although that particular uptrend is broken as the Trend Channel indicates, a new down trend won't be established until the trend channel starts moving in a trend down, until then it will be lateral slop.

Other momentum indicators on that last call like the momo at the top showed a positive divergence, remember though this is just for intraday moves, although it can be used on longer timeframes, Stochastics tells me nothing as I'm only interested in embedded signals, remember this is a long setting as well of 50 period.

The DIA...

 Yesterday's negative divergence at the highs was established well before we hit them, just like last night's futures. There was a small positive divergence in the DIA at the late afternoon correction (white) and on the open and early highs this morning 3C was negative at both.

 2 min intraday shows the same thing for yesterday as above and the same for today as above with the start of a leading negative divergence, this will be something to keep an eye on.

 The DIA 15 min chart is where the readings are really more important, there's a leading negative at yesterday and a deeper move in to today.


The IWM...

IWM 1 min negative/leading negative at yesterday's highs and a small positive divergence in the afternoon, today leading negative right off the open.

 2 min leading negative through all of yesterday (this is how we can establish this move was a head fake, there was no intent on supporting it, just selling in to it. Today we see a leading negative position on the open and currently.

 15 min from a relative negative to a leading negative divergence as is often the case.


This is the same 15 min chart from above, but in the historical context of the trend. There was strong accumulation for over a week, perhaps two as price moved in to the 11/16/2012 lows which started a new cycle, then the trend #1 move to the upside we expected and recall my words even before the first advance in price, "Trend #1 will likely be much stronger than we can even imagine, but it will also be smaller and shorter in duration compared to trend #2 (down)'. I'd say Trend #1 did exactly that, think about it, "stronger than we can imagine", it has been that, however it has also shown a deep leading negative divergence that has been the worst of the entire cycle thus far.


The QQQ

 1 min clearly leading negative in to yesterday's highs, there was a small positive at the lows from yesterday and a relative negative divergence this a,m, with a slight leading positive at this capture-remember the gap is still open. Since this capture the divergence here has faded a bit, even with price moving up a bit.

 2 min leading negative  in to the predicted breakout in the Q's. There was no positive at the lows yesterday and this morning's early highs were negative .

 3 min, leading negative at the predicted breakout move, negative in to the early highs today.

 5 min, shows accumulation before the breakout move and a leading negative 3C chart confirms the head fake move.

The 60 min chart since the start of the 11/16 cycle is leading negative and most of it started around the predicted breakout move.

I said numerous times I thought that move would have to happen before we got anywhere as the other 3 major averages completed the breakout a week or so earlier.