Thursday, January 3, 2013

Opening Indications

There's a little softness and there seems to be the start of some negative divergences moving or migrating through longer timeframes which is what we were looking for yesterday, but didn't expect we'd see until the SPY and DIA broke out above resistance making it possible for institutional money to sell in to higher prices and demand.

Although it seems the process is starting, we would still be early in it, even though it can occur (and I expect it to occur) quickly; it also means that we are still dealing with the shorter timeframe charts which are the easiest to move and do move frequently through the day. The point being, until we reach some longer timeframe charts, the process is not solid yet, but it's enough for me to want to reduce  positions that are profitable.

 DIA 1 min opening is not confirming, so this is a negative divergence, it can move to a positive quickly, but this is what it is for now, I don't try to guess the future.

 There are other timeframes in the DIA that are seeing negative divergences as well, but until we get to a negative position on this 5 min chart, I wouldn't be very keen on calling for a reversal.

 The IWM 1 min is almost perfectly in line- price/3C which is trend confirmation, no divergences here yet.

 We did however see some yesterday as I mentioned, a new high in the IWM/R2k opens up demand to sell in to and it looks like that is what was happening yesterday on this 3 min chart.

 Even the 5 min which was in line is seeing a slight negative that is migrating from the 3 min chart. This is how the process should unfold.

 QQQ intraday 1 min has been moving in line with price, but is in an overall negative 1 min divergence as 3C has not made a new higher high.

 The 5 min chart still retains it's strength so the 1 min then 2 and 3 min will have to turn negative until they have enough distribution to start to turn the 5 min chart negative. At this time the 2 min chart is also negative, but the 3 min (which would be next) is still positive like this 5 min chart.

 SPY 1 min-the SPY needed some extra support yesterday to make it above resistance so the 1 min is in good shape, but on the open this morning is showing a little negative momentum, we'll see if it builds.

The 5 min chart is positive so it's a similar situation as the IWM.

As for futures, the intraday 1 min charts look decent for ES and NQ futures as do the 5 min charts as of now. The 15 min charts have seen a little damage from the overnight session, but they can go either way, it will depend on whether the 1 and 5 min charts stay positive or whether they turn negative.


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