Yesterday I said I'd likely fill out the GLD position started yesterday, the price is right, the charts continue to improve and beyond the short term trade, I believe there's a chance a longer term trade works, this the longer expiration.
For those wondering about gold miners, GDX or the junior miners, GDXJ, they look pretty good, I think gold looks much better and I wouldn't personally want exposure to both unless the two positions were treated as one for risk management purposes. If I had to chose between the miners I'd go with the Junior miners, GDXJ as they appear to look better, but I'd still prefer GLD over the miners.
Here are the charts...
2 min chart from when GLD turned negative to a continuing leading positive divergence.
3 min chart with initial short term distribution which is often used to knock price down to accumulate at lower levels, accumulate on stop runs, etc. There's a leading positive divergence here too.
The 5 min chart shows confirmation to the left, then the leading negative divergence followed by the current leading positive divergence.
GLD's 10 min chart has been in a relative positive divergence both yesterday and today.
The daily chart is what has been most interesting recently, we know there was a clear head fake move below the consolidation/continuation triangle and we know that traders took the bait, this is a very solid positive divergence, it reminds me of the price patters, the head fake and the divergence we saw that led to the June 4th, 2012 lows in the market, which we knew were a head fake move since the triangle started forming.
What is gold up to? I really don't have a clue, a stronger $USD would seem to be coming and that isn't usually conducive to gold rallying, but the charts say there's something going on, it wouldn't be the first time we've seen such a mystery play out, only to be revealed later.
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