Thursday, February 28, 2013

MARKET UPDATE-FUTURES

As I said earlier, I hope the market can keep up as long as possible today and we get some decent moves that open more opportunities.

Form the intraday 1 min futures ONLY (not from any of the market averages which are seeing more and more damage), it looks like there could be a pop out of this little triangle we are in. Remember my guy feeling about trend #2 way back when, that it reverses very sharply, I can imagine something like that and I still think it's a decent probability, from what appears to be strength to the bottom dropping out.

The good thing is the charts that matter are headed in the right direction, for  futures that's the 5 min charts, here are the 1 and 5 min...
 ES 1 min is leading positive here so I wouldn't be surprised for a move out of this triangle-like pattern, but I wouldn't bet on it lasting long.

 ES 5 min is even worse and is definitely in the area where we have been taking weekly puts, I prefer to be out to next week rather than tomorrow on the expiration.

 NASDAQ 1 min has the same leading positive position in 3C, this is intraday only though.

The 5 min chart is in a negative divergence that has been similar to the ones we have been taking all February for the weekly options (long Put here).

CONTEXT still looks horrible...'
 The differential is around -26

As for the TICK, there's really no movement breadth wise, we've been stuck between -750 and +800 with 1 spike to +1200.

Leading indicators still look bad, the Euro is giving even less support, credit hasn't improved, this is a perfect time for the reminder, "Price is above all, deceptive".


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