Wednesday, February 6, 2013

Got Out

Ok, I'm not even done with my analysis and haven't had a chance to look at the Q's beyond 1 min, but I  keep looking at High Yield Corp. Credit and how incredibly cheap it is vs any of the equities and if there was to be a big swing to the upside before the ECB in anticipation of a sell-off, then what would you choose to put on a big position for a quick trade, equities that are trading very rich compared to every metric out there or the deeply discounted High Yield Credit, especially HYG which is EXTREMELY liquid so they could put on a decent size position and be able to get out of it because of it's enormous liquidity, it's a HELL of a lot cheaper (please excuse my language, but I really wanted to convey that point), yes, HY Credit is trading at an extraordinary discount.

So I looked at HYG and saw a few positive divergences that I did not like, now don't get me wrong, as far as what we use Leading Indicators for, HY Corp and Junk Credit are so totally dislocated from the SPX (one reason CONTEXT is so divergent from ES) that the negative signal and bias for the market is not going to change even with a 1.5% move in HYG in a day, but for what I mentioned last night, "One last Hurrah before the ECB", this is the most discounted, High Yielding Asset they could choose.

So I decided that I'm not going to take a 1-day gain and put it at risk when I can simply re-enter the position later.

I closed the entire position unlike yesterday where it was phased out, after thinking about it the couple of hours of risk weren't worth the extra 2.27% on a 50+% gain. Here's a nearly 42% gain, this is what, like the 4th or 5th in a week? Don't get me wrong, day trades (literally 1 day) and options, especially weekly are my least favorite trade despite the gains, you can only go so long before the other side of the sword cuts you, but they are undoubtedly the best vehicle for this environment.

I'm going to get out the Leading indicators, but I could almost guarantee that HYG will rally and probably Junk Credit with it.

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