Leading Indicators

As quickly as I can-and if you are wondering whether I'd take a long/call in front of the ECB tomorrow, no, there's too much risk, not enough probabilities. I will leave the AMZN call open for the short term trade it was meant to be.

 This is FCT, it just happens to be a good leading indicator, there's a loss of downside momentum, all in all though I think the dislocation is big enough that whatever the loss of momentum is about is shorter in nature. Note the earlier confirmation of Trend 1 to the left.

 Yields, like a magnet for stocks, they are dislocating intraday.

 And they are dislocating on a longer view as we entered the volatility area.

 The $AUD intraday is not playing along.

 The dislocation here is enormous.

 The Euro intraday, you already know it's close on a longer term basis, but today it's more risk averse.

Credit...

 On a 1 min chart, here's what bothered me early yesterday, credit (Junk) moving with the SPX, it seems to have found a support area, I'd say an accumulation zone, it is very short in nature though so unless it puts in several more days, it can't sustain a very long or strong move, but it is really cheap vs other risk assets.

 Longer term, something like 25 days in this trend or 5 trading weeks and the entire gain in Junk credit was stripped away in 7 days, FEAR is stronger than GREED.

 The biggie, HYG or High Yield Corporate Credit. Today it appears less connected to the SPX than yesterday, but it also seems to be reaching for an accumulation/support area.

 Long term, that's a bad sign for stocks as Credit leads and equities follow, but still you see the support area it is reaching for today?

 The long term view and I'm not sure what the actual credit would look like, this is the ETF, but big accumulation at the November Cycle low, in line on the way up and then a large leading negative divergence and a positive divergence now within the leading negative, the leading negative is far stronger.

Here's a closer view, the distribution at the top and the accumulation it appears of the last 2-3 days. It looks like volatility is really going to pick up and with it, I'm guessing the swings in the chop are going to be larger before a fall off the cliff.