Market Update

There are somethings I saw a few weeks ago that told me the market was in real trouble, I'll call your attention to the percentage of NYSE stocks either: above, 1 standard deviation above or 2 standard deviations above their 40 day price moving average and how that had declined dramatically, last week I showed you how they were in super-negative territory which smells oversold.

Today we are moving on fundamental data in the form of Italian election polls vs results which as usual, are two very different things so I'm not sure how much real data we have her that's not transitory in nature.

I want to keep this update a bit shorter and I'll follow up when there's a good time with a bit more, but my opinions still haven't changed, the snake's back is broken, but that doesn't mean the snake isn't still dangerous, probably more so as the market goes through similar gyrations as our "snake". However this is also a time where we can expect a lot of movement and that movement can be useful in position ourselves.

As for the immediate market update, the TICK tells the story...

You may recall I said early this morning that if I was a more aggressive trader or day trader, I'd probably take the Put at that point around the time I was closing the QQQ/IWM calls from last week. I'm glad I didn't take the trade although it would have done well, it's just not worth the risk and this is the slippery slope with options.

As I have been writing this I captured a TICK chart at the start and one just now...

 Other than the emotional extremes that are apparent and much different than the complacency of the last several months, the TICK was showing a clear trend, it was this trend you need to watch for an intraday reversal.

A few minutes later and the TICK is breaking the channel which fits with preliminary 3C data I gathered as the charts are losing the downside momentum, I'd watch for some lateral consolidation or even a bounce in to the last hour and a half.

More to come.