Monday, March 18, 2013

GLD Update

Our GLD April $150 Calls are up right now somewhere around 9% perhaps a little less, the situation in the EU is largely dictating the outlook and as you'll find out if you don't already know, it's extremely fluid.

I prefer to take profits on momentum moves, but GLD was also a longer expiration (April) for a reason.

Here's what we have so far.

 GLD's 1 min intraday chart from Friday was positive in to the close (again more Thursday/Friday signs that seem to point to market knowledge of what was about to go down). We don't have confirmation on the open thus far, it's not horrible either, but for the moment it seems we are at an area in which we will probably not move too far from until something else shakes lose. Very short term there's a chance for some $USD strengthening as well.

 The 5 min GLD momentum is in line and looks good, RSI, MACD, momentum and a Stochastics embed are all good signs thus far.

 We have an even better looking 15 min chart, which ultimately is a stronger signal

 Gold E-mini Futures show confirmation on the longer 5 min chart.

The 1 min chart has a small negative divergence that is about in line with the EUR/USD single currency futures charts.

 The USD which slid overnight is now putting in a small positive divergence which is along the lines of the size expected considering the 1 min gold futures negative.

The Euro also has a 1 min negative divergence suggesting the EUR/USD moves lower, which pressures gold a bit, it depends on how scared traders are and how much they are willing to accept in turn for a safe haven, last night on the futures open gold flew higher despite the $USD doing the same so the fear was palpable last night, it seems to have moderated a bit.

The EUR/USD pair seems to confirm what the single FX futures charts are showing with a mild 1 min negative divergence as I'd expect to see.

I'd prefer to get one more solid leg up with momentum and look at closing some of the April gold calls and look at re-establishing a new position later.

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