I'm going to try to reference quite a few charts, the reason being is price can do anything here and that doesn't mean a lot as price is among the most deceptive of indication, however I'm VERY curious as to how the underlying trade progresses from here.
*I was preparing this post, but there were so many charts that short term moved faster than I could get the post out. I do want you to see the text and I'll post additional updates that are more current.*
We heard the President of Saxo-Bank say that he heard rumors last week that this Cyprus Levy on bank accounts was a possibility, this could very well explain why (in addition to other signals that have been red-flagged), the last two days of last week saw some very unusual activity across the credit, treasury, equity and risk indication space as well as a number of other signs.
Whether the Saxo-Bank President is being honest about how much he knew, I think he did at least hear rumors, that means those better connected lie Goldmanites, where probably fully in the know, you can't shit down an entire banking system's withdrawal process and deduct levies automatically after the banks are closed and on a national scale, I'm sure this isn't something that can be done with a few keystrokes, in other words, this plan has likely been well in the making for more than just a few days.
When we have a fundamental event so small with implications so large (not to get in to hyperbole, but Russians and Germans don't have the best track-record of resolving disputes), everything changes, I think we now know definitively why High Yield credit gave up the entire year's gains in 2 days last Thursday and Friday, you may recall me even saying, "It seems they don't want to have any position on over the weekend".
So Here are the charts which I find at this point to look like they are in a holding pattern so at this point my theory is there was a certain contingent of the market that was aware of what was about to happen, but on the other hand, is was on a NEED TO KNOW basis, the entire plan falls apart at the first whisper of a possible levy as EVERYONE bum-rushes the banks to withdrawal the funds the EU was so dependent on-without the funds, there can be no effective levy. So I expect there to be some movement in response to this event, I don't think it was fully discounted, not even close and it is so fluid right now, there seems to be more of a wait and see, with a bias toward reducing risk as the market gained some back this morning.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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