Thursday, March 7, 2013

GOOG April $810 Puts

This is a position that I have wanted to fill out, but I definitely don't want to add to a put on this downside momentum so I'll let what's already in place stay and look for a better area to possibly add to that one. As for an equity short, it's a little different, i still would not chase it, but there's much less harm in opening or filling out an equity short, however i do think it will have to be a fairly actively managed position for a while.

 I think there are two head fake levels here, one right around $775 which is the bigger and one around $808 which is the smaller, breaking of the $775 will have a lot more impact on price, the concept, "From failed moves come fast/deep moves". We even have a small intraday head fake.

 This is not at all the kind of momentum I want to but a put during, but it's important to line up the market and the stock (as well as the sector) to get the best entry, highest probability and lowest risk.

 Here are the levels in white, the 15 min chart is leading negative at the lower trendline, this is where I think GOOG can really see some fast downside momentum, below the $775 area so we may have some time before we hit that to add or create a new position.

The 5 min chart shows an intraday head fake move, you can check the charts, it's distribution, but retail chases it as a new breakout.

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