Thursday, March 7, 2013

The Euro and not so invisible hand

I know we have a couple of FX traders here, yesterday I was harping on my view that the Euro would not be allowed to stay sub< $1.30, sure enough if you too that trade and went long EUR/USD or another EUR long pair, you should be pretty happy this morning as it just crossed $1.31

 This was the Euro under $1.30 yesterday, something I did not think the Germans would allow to stand, although the French were probably pretty excited and hopeful it would stay below $1.30, but in the EU the Germans get their way first and on that note, a pretty much parabolic spike in the Euro.

 Here's the Euro(FXE) vs the SPX... Not much difference so far as far as the market is concerned when it would normally send the market surging with the $USD gapping down as much as it did.

However don't forget the bigger picture, the Euro is still massively dislocated from the normal correlation with the SPX, so maybe it's not so exciting to the market. From my rough estimates the Euro would have to be over $1.36 to even be back near the correlation.

Anyone go long the Euro yesterday?

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