GOOG Update

There are no GOOG calls or long positions, there is an equity short position (Full size) and a fairly large April Put position, much larger than speculative (broke my own rules). Here's how I see GOOG, it is very similar to AMZN, but I didn't want to reduce any short positioning as far as the balance of the portfolio goes and GOOG seemed like a good choice to keep in place.

Have you noticed how aggressively stocks are being sold off on bad news whereas in the past the reactions were very subdued, sometimes surprisingly apathetic. Now you see the CATs, DEs, and especially ORCL's of the market just getting monkey hammered and this fits perfectly with the breadth readings showing fewer stocks able to hold their 40-day moving average or some multiplier of that for momentum stocks and we see more and more stocks moving below their 40 and 200 day moving averages and some bearish multiplier of that (1 or 2 standard deviations below the averages). The bottom line is the market is exhibiting a lot more fear, sell first, ask question later and for good reason.

In any case, about late February and even before at early February I said the market will be getting more volatile and with that, more unpredictable. The big moves will come on a gap down in one day and if you missed it, you missed the biggest part of the move, we saw this with High Yield Credit taking out the full 2013 gains in 2 days, no matter where it is now, those longs were burnt.

So I want short exposure balanced in my portfolio as the data right now from Cyprus hasn't been discounted, it changes by the moment and we hear about it a few nano-seconds later than the algos, it's an event the market can't discount or predict, just like Italian elections or Greek for that matter. At any time we could have a black swan/Black Friday event no matter how much the Central banks say they have us backstopped.

As for GOOG, I still think probabilities are higher for a bounce before the real strong downside, but I do not think the bounce is a high probability trade worth trading.

 GOOG daily is in a precarious position, it has broken the trendline which use to be enough in Technical Analysis, but now we see all kinds of volatility shakeouts after the initial break to shake out new shorts. We also have the first head fake confirmation level just below, I think it is probable that this support level is tested and used to run stops before a move higher, it only take a few minutes, but in any case, the move higher is the main point.

 Our X-Over Screen is super close to 3 confirmed sell/short signals, I think it's just waiting on some volatility and this should be confirmed probably by mid next week.

 The 9-day (this is because it is the longest timeframe before monthly) shows my custom 'Buy/Sell" DeMark inspired indicator with a buy at the 2009 lows, a sell at late 2009, early 2010, a 2012 sell signal and one right now.

 The 1 min chart looks pretty good, I said damage was  done yesterday and it was, but today there has been some positive short term changes.

 The 3 min chart shows a number of small areas, this typically shows up as an accrual of accumulation on a longer timeframe, they are essentially accumulating the lows and the larger position is seen on a longer timeframe/trend.

 Here's an example on the 10 min

 And a better one on the 30 min, however if you think "What gives? This looks pretty bullish?", then just wait and look below.

 This 60 min chart is leading negative, what is impressive is how fast and how deep, this tells us what the real longer term, strongest trend has been in underlying trade, so I want to sell in to any strength or short it.

If that wasn't enough, the daily chart confirms it and it does so as the worst negative since before 2007.