The market is highly correlated directionally, if the Dow is down, 4 of 5 times or more, the SPX will be down, the markets follow sentiment so although I wanted to cover the IWM April Puts as well, the QQQ charts should be enough because you're not going to find that much difference in the big picture or the timeframe we are looking for in the trade.
Short term charts don't really matter that much right now because they aren't going to be relevant in a few days for the most part, this is what is important and the last chart will be hard to digest, but this market is a bubble, there's no doubt, it's just an asset-less bubble inflated by the F_E_D so we have never seen anything like this and the unwind of F_E_D policy or the popping of the bubble is always the most dangerous part. I call this entire rally since 2009, a "
House of Cards built on the sand at edge of the tide line"
Just as a quick review of the shorter term charts, 1 min through 2 min are in line with some slight positive bias as of 3:30 low. At 3 mins and beyond, the charts are all negative as are the futures for the NASDAQ.
This break of the Trend Channel is where I said and still believe, the back of the trend was broken, remember the date 3/5 coming out of that area.
On a 5 min trend of 3C, here's what happened around 3/5 a leading negative divergence, not good, basically it appears every transaction up here is toward distribution/ short selling
15 min chart since the accumulation that started the November low cycle, then accumulation that started the trend 1 cycle that was much bigger than anticipated, but probably about as strong.
30 min chart and look at the date in which the character really changes, it's also bad before that, but I thought this date was interesting.
5-day long term chart showing 2007 distribution and distribution at the end of QE1, since the 2011 August plunge, this market never recovered.
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