Leading Indicators. FX and no News

I couldn't find any news, it doesn't look like the levers have been reactivated...

 The SPY arbitrage model showed early manipulation of rates, credit and volatility, I could find each of those charts and confirm, since just after they were switched on, they went to the off position and have been running the opposite way of the SPY even since to give us the widest differential on the day at -$.60 as the model is leading below the SPY, ANOTHER INDICATION of the flight to safety.

CONTEXT for ES/SPX futures is little better, the model has been negative the entire day, a bit less so now then earlier, but still a good $7 point differential and that's pretty big when you still need about 5 points so in essence it's about a 13 point differential from the SPX new highs.

As for leading indicators, I was stumped on 1 thing, but figures it out quickly, to some degree...

 The run in commodities vs the SPX didn't make sense, this looks very risk on.

 I looked at the $USD and it is not supportive of a run in commodities, but one commod in specific I believe is behind this move in the group.

USO, which moved up on no news with a very high 3-day Rate of Change, I'm thinking what happened over the last 3 days as well as really pushing it on the 18th, you know what i came up with? Cyprus. The 18th was the first day the market was open after the first horrible EU plan was announced over the weekend and the last 3-days have seen the second even worse plan hatched (Sunday through today).

Remember I said Russia is playing it cool like chess players, but it's likely going to be a very long, cold winter in Europe? Well I think the market may be discounting that EXACT fact as Russia and more specifically Putin and Gazprom "Turn off the spickett" (in the vernacular of one George W. Bush) thus (as an OPEC member) driving oil prices through the roof as well as Nat. Gas. (UNG is having a decent day too).

 The lever of HY Corp. Credit (HYG) is obviously off, I'm wondering though whether this is true exodus from risk/HYG, there's a 2 min positive divergence, not sure if it is left over and will be wiped away or if it is there to stay and they'll try this again a bit later/tomorrow?

 I can say as a measure of pure risk, the sentiment seems to be clear, "Not interested" using FCT.

 The EURO which had been somewhat correlated intraday has been jerked around on all of the rumors/news/retractions and fear that the market actually knows the truth as the EU is just simply too damn dumb to hide it and that truth would be as the head of the Euro-group said yesterday in 2 interviews and then denied it, "Use Cyprus as a model for the rest of the EU".

 Notice a change in character in the Euro v the SPX? Check the date, the Friday of the plan and the next Monday after it was announced.

 Meanwhile the flight to safety, as predicted, continues to move toward the $USD as the correlation with the SPX to the left (white) is correct or typical and the one to the right (red) is very non-typical, a rising Dollar pressures almost all risk assets including stocks, so why have they held? A Hint: $1565.15

 The longer term correlation between the Yen and the SPX as sen above suggests clearly that the carry trade with the Yen as one of the pairs is or was alive and well, but the recent stumble in the yen twice has seen the market stumble, the first time it broke the Trend Channel and now look at it, why would the US market care what the Japanese currency is doing? Well normally it wouldn't unless it's part of a carry trade funding equity purchases and when you get scared that something might go wrong at 200:1 leverage, you sell the assets and close the carry.

 Yields also came undone from the SPX early this morning, this is a reflection of TLT and thus the SPY arbitrage as investors are willing to accept lower and lower yields to find some safe place to park money coming out of stocks.

 Longer term looking at the same chart v. the SPX, note the change in character on the Friday of the EU/Cyprus decision and the 18th, the Monday after it was announced.

Longer term there has been a flight to safety going on for longer than most thing, not the Great Rotation Out of Bonds and In to Stocks.

Good call CNBC!