SPY Arbitrage and NYSE TICK- more evidence

Yesterday I mentioned that the short term manipulations by using VIX futures, rates/yields and credit (liquid credit) to move the market are short term in effect and really don't carry the same longer term effect and the mis-matched or manipulated correlation can't hold out forever. The fact we are on the 9th day to try to break what was only 2 points away ( a fraction of a percent)is evidence of the limitations of their effectiveness and at some point the flight to TLT will send prices higher, it can only be held down so long as demand surges, the same with HYG, credit traders are smart, they aren't going to be caught with their pants around their ankles (this is why they use a very liquid form of credit they can move in and out of quickly) and volatility is eventually going to revert to the mean.

In the mean time, here's more intraday evidence...

 Here's the SPY Arbitrage data, the SPY model based on VIX Futures, HY Corp Credit (HYG) and TLT all flipped positive within about the first 30 seconds of the market open and have a differential between the SPY model based on the 3 assets above of +$.50, pretty close to what the SPX needs for the new nominal high.

The TICK however counts all NYSE advancing stocks per bar (1 min) and subtracts all declining stocks, at the open there were 1000 more advancers at a higher high there were 143 more decliners than advancers and at a slight pullback 900 more decliner than advancers so you can see how the unequal trade weighting effects the market, the averages are not equally weighted as in the Dow 30 allows each stock 1/30th of the index's value, it's very different. Each average has their own way, but none are equally weighted.

In fact, while we are on the subject and the question of AAPL, take a look at these two charts.

This is the NASDAQ 100 on a 1 min chart with today's open to the right, the red line is an equal weighted index of the NASDAQ 100, as if each component were worth 1% of the total and as you can see the equal weighted index is outperforming this morning, wonder why?

In green we have the same 1 min chart, but of AAPL and in red the actual NASDAQ 100, AAPL is significantly underperforming the NDX, thus it is holding the NDX back as compared to an equal weighted index of all 100 components, this is a great and rare example of the power AAPL holds over the NASDAQ and of index weighting.