Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Market Update-Levers Are Out

It's too early to get a SPY Arbitrage chart from CapitalContext as they are delayed, but I can see just from looking at HYG, TLT and VXX that the levers are out and being used to full effect.

I was asked a question about whether AAPL would be a choice to ramp the SPX, actually AAPL is a better choice to ramp the NDX, NASDAQ 100 where it carries nearly 20% weight on the index, so AAPL carries about the same heft to move prices on the NDX as the bottom 50 weighted NDX stocks combined. This is why the market average can move down while you have bad breadth because you can literally have 50 of the NASDAQ 100 move down and as long as AAPL moves up a bit more than the combined move of all 50 of those stocks, the NDX will be up, even if there were far more stocks declining than advancing.

I think it is more helpful to the SPX by way of drafting as the market's typically move together are least directionally, as far as percentage gains, they use to have a tight correlation, lately (over the last few months) that has not been the case. Each Index has a different weighting scheme, NASDAQ's is proprietary so unless you pat $10,000 a year for a NASDAQ subscription, you'll never know exactly what the formula is, but after re-weighting it doesn't take some math wiz-kids long to figure out AAPL's weight and from past weighting released by the NADAQ.


The levers...
 Yesterday late in the day HYG was accumulated

 TLT's short term 2 min chart has ben under assault since yesterday, although longer charts have sen no damage

And the VIX Futures are hitting an equal low while the SPY hasn't even made it to yesterday's highs.

Obviously the levers are out, today should be the day "Should", 9 days ago should have been the day, but they are obviously throwing the kitchen sink at the market now, trying to lift it to the SPX's nominal highs.



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