Wednesday, March 6, 2013

Market Update

As much as I urge patience, it's probably my number #1 Bug-a-boo, so I'm trying to remain patient even though I see changes taking place in front of my eyes, it's not just the divergence that matters, that's the start of a change in underlying money flows, it also takes some time for the flows which are in the hundreds of billions to shift and settle so patience is actually essential even though you can see underlying price action moving in a different direction than price itself.

So I'm still trying to stay patient, but I'll tell you I see movement in all of the volatility ETFs/ETNs with VXX and UVXY going positive and XIV going negative.

I see TLT/Treasuries or the flight to safety seeing in flows as well, this alone is good confirmation.

I see many of the averages showing divergences as well as futures.

I haven't had a chance to look at as much as I would like, but the move is not just a little here and there, so far it's in everything I';ve looked at so it is broad based.

As I said the IWM is probably my next weekly put (next week's expiration) target, but I really have a gut feeling the IWM moves above the intraday highs of the last 2 days, that's a gut feeling, but I trust it.

Energy is seeing changes, although the real divergences in Energy are in the more important longer term charts, ERY long is my play for shorting Energy.

If I had to pick one asset class to go in to right now, I'd say short financials is more developed than the others, something to consider. There's SKF long or FAZ long to get short exposure to financials or just short XLF if you don't want the leverage, individual stocks are probably looking good too, I just haven't seen them yet.

XLK/Technology is also shaping up, I'd like to see XLK break above $30.25/$30.30, I'm not sure if it will though. The short leveraged play there is TECS at 3x leverage.

More to come..


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