One More Try.... ? / Leading Indicators Speak

As was asked in last night's post, One More Try based on some Futures movement...

"This could be nothing (although I doubt it), it could be the start of a move for an options expiration pin or it could be that new Dow high I think Wall St. would love to have, especially on a Friday, but there's some movement in futures."

In any case, whatever it is, it doesn't bother me, I think yesterday and today are shaping up to be key tactical days.

Leading Indicators are quite interesting, especially when it comes time to pull the trigger on some trades that are emotionally difficult to pull the trigger on like a put against a rising GOOG today.

First some of the lesser known, but still useful indications...

 HIO High Income Fund was moving as it should with the SPX, but then a big divergence and a smart one, why risk money in a market that is lateral and volatile, still a useful signal.

 Yields are like a magnet for stocks, the longer term view of Yields in a deep dislocation.

Today Yields dropped quite a bit on the open and intraday they are diverging from the SPX as well.

Credit

 HYG is in line to the left near term the last couple of days,  but this morning saw a nasty gap down.

 It's also diverging intraday even from that gap down.

 Junk Credit does the same as HYG, it's doing the same, gap down and everything.

 High Yield Credit was moving down with the market as they should, but it has no interest in following the SPX north.

 The $AUD with a long term positive divergence before the SPX even bottoms in November, now a nasty long term negative dislocation.

 Intraday it's lagging the SPX.

 The typical risk driver, the Euro is also lagging the SPX intraday, but worse...

 On a longer term basis, this is a big red flag.

 Interesting the market is up despite the $USD being up intraday here too, again, it goes back to last night's post and the truth about the market, they want to move it somewhere for whatever reason in the short term, it doesn't matter what the dollar does, short term as in "One more try".

 The Yen moving down is more or less good for the carry trade which is more or less good for the market, but something has been changing recently in the Yen that can cause a lot of trouble to the highly leveraged carry trades which in turn effects the market negatively.

Intraday however, I don't know if they Yen or the SPX came first on this move, but they are in the right correlation for the move, the only currency of all above that is.

Bottom line, this looks as I said last night, some manipulation, whether op-ex, Dow new highs or something else, but I see it as a tactical gift.