Friday, March 1, 2013

I'd REALLY Like to get GOOG

I can't go too much further on the equity short in GOOG without violating risk management rules I try to keep, if this were a brand new position, I think I'd be looking to phase in to it and enter about 50% short right now and wait for a chance to hopefully get the rest a little higher as I talked about in this last GOOG Update/Trade Idea on Feb 27.

Since then I have posted numerous notes/reminders about GOOG:
Feb 27th- Positions I Like

Feb 27th GOOG Reminder

Feb 28 Note

Mention of it last night in "One More Try"

And now once more... I think I'll have to look at Puts, but I do like a longer term equity short as well.

 The yellow arrow is what I believe to be the head fake area, BIDU did the same thing for an even longer period of time, but stuck around the same spot when we entered that head fake at the highs of the year for 2012, a move above recent resistance would be at $809, I might have little choice but to take action if that were to happen.

 The 2 min chart shows a classic leading positive divergence to the left in white and a leading negative divergence to the right in red, however even shorter term...

 The 1 min chart shows GOOG making some upside this morning rather than continuing the move lower, this is good from my perspective, but I don't know how long it lasts and the op-ex day doesn't make things easier.

 The 5 min leading negative and where I'd prefer to enter a GOOG put or short.

 The 15 min chart with accumulation and nasty distribution, leading well below the year's lows.

 Here's a closer look at the same chart, this damage is done in a flat range where we often see divergences and above the head fake area, which is the reason for the head fake move.

The 2 hour chart has a bad negative divergence, I put some marks to use comparative divergence analysis, look at price at the two green hash marks and look at 3C at the two red hash marks, not only is it locally divergent, but leading negative on a much larger basis, I REALLY WANT THIS ONE.

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