Friday, March 1, 2013

WAY POINT: EURO $1.30 XXXXX

Just because it's important psychologically, I would think there's some kind of bounce after hitting stops , but I'm not sure it matters to the market as the correlation was broken to the negative side a while ago, I do think this is what caused all of those negative divergences everywhere as it happened around the same time...
 ES was just one of the negatives...

 I'm just noting how they've kept the volatility up and reminding you of how many times I have warned that once the Trend Channel is broken, there may be additional gains, but that's if you play it perfect and I never find it worthwhile as the volatility makes those small extra gains VERY dangerous to go after, it's like 80% is easy money with 20% risk and 20% is hard with 80% risk, the 80/20 rule.

 The Euro vs. the SPY intraday

 The Euro vs the SPY on a daily basis, as I said, the correlation of these two moving together as risk assets is broken, it use to be so tight you could tell what the market was doing by looking at the EUR/USD.

 We first started tracking trouble in the Euro a while back when the very first lower highs/lower lows were in place, this trend is unreal in how clean it is.

 Today the Euro broke the psychologically important $1.30 level, so much for Goldman's call for $1.40

Here's the daily trend line in the pair

No comments: