The Game is Afoot

Really quickly, my gut feel is this price action is more than just the weekly option expiration pin (which never use to be an issue), my gut feeling is something is going on. VIX futures are higher, the spot is lower (tip of the hat Japhy), as we see VXX/UVXY higher-they're based on the VIX futures not spot and futures are bid.

There are a number of individual stocks that give me the feeling this isn't over yet and although I was just about to fill out the GOOD April Put, I held off because of that. Believe me, there are still very negative signals and damage that has been done that is astounding, we're not even talking about anything that large, we're talking about timing or tactical.

I see credit is down from the gap this morning, but intraday is making some moves higher, not close to a leading positive signal, but interesting for tactical reasons (talking about a day, maybe less typically).

Of the (3) FX pairs I mentioned, EUR/USD is taking a break like the market, so is EUR/JPY, but AUD/JPY looks to be turning lower. The Yen itself is no longer heading lower supporting the market, but is flat, the $AUD is losing ground (negative for the market), which between the $AUD and Yen, explains the move in the pair (AUD/JPY). Although intraday the dollar is leaking gently lower, it gapped up today which helps explain the market's gap down, but not the market's price now, which again is ahead of all correlations which means manipulation.

The model ES is worsening as the differential expands again between ES and the CONTEXT ES model.

Yields are down and not buying what the market is selling, commodities are not inspired.

It seems to me something in the realm of manipulation is taking place beyond option expiration's max pain pin, which is manipulation in and of itself which we apparently saw last night budding.

The new Dow high has never been far from my mind since I mentioned it and its effect on retail, I'm just writing thoughts as they pop in my mind, but that is among them.

The point is the fleeting glimpses have all bee toward large positioning for a nasty market event, the short term has some signs that are not VERY obvious, but can be found if you look around enough that we are not done with this volatility zone.

However beyond the deterioration in risk assets and what has been said about currencies, most of that is gut feeling. I'm going to keep watching for hard evidence as the last hour of Friday seems to produce some signals, I assume it's because most options contracts are closed by now.