Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Leading Indications -Currencies

I don't have time to show you everything I want to, let me just show you what I need to at the moment.

 CONTEXT for ES has been improving all day, that means risk assets have been improving.

In looking around I found HY corp Credit, HY Credit and Junk Credit all leading the SPX in a major way. Yields and Treasuries were also favorable. I can see why VIX futures are being bid, but they are still in a position that suggests and 3C suggests that they'll come down shortly. TLT is  being bid intraday which makes sense with intraday market action as well as my theory or what I think would work best for closing action (a new intraday low).

I found assets that we use to determine risk sentiment that aren't correlated to any kind of market manipulation to be in highly Risk On positions of sentiment, at least short term.


SPY Arbitrage interestingly moves in to the positive around noon, which is the same time that many High Yield Credit assets move in to leading position vs the SPX, I can see why this is positive and growing and I'll show you after the close.

FX is probably the best thing for timing, I do want to look at the Yen a bit closer, but these other 3 are pretty clear.

 $USDX 5 min went from the leading positive divergence that sent the $USD up today and market down, but there's a very negative 3C signal now.

 Here's a 1 min chart of the 3C signal, a falling $USD is market positive.


 The Euro 5 min is leading positive, this is market positive

 Euro 1 min positive 3C

 $AUD 15 min relative and leading positive

1 min positive $AUD looks ready to move, I think I feel safe adding risk.

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