Friday, April 5, 2013

Leading Indicators/Levers

The CONTEXT and SPY arbitrage are very interesting...
 I pointed out last night the dramatic change from CONTEXT being down around 8 points to moving towards parity and now around pre-market CONTEXT has gone positive at a +9 point differential, the exact opposite of yesterday's action.

SPY arbitrage looks like the averages' intraday charts, a series of small adjustments to facilitate the most effective op-ex pin.

HYG is leading the SPX, it is supportive. VXX is broadly in line with the SPX, but VIX futures are not seeing the same amount of volatility or a bid for protection that they have demonstrated in the recent past at SPX levels that weren't as low, in other words I'd expect the VXX to be higher than it is, so it looks to be supportive as well of the market. While FCT and HIO have seen a move towards risk off, it's no where near as big as you'd expect after the gap down and NFP.

The EUR/USD has been broadly supportive today. Yields hit a new low as would be expected, but not as volatile on the downside as would be expected, about half of yesterday's decline in yields and showing intraday movement that is making the daily candle look like an upside reversal candle.

High Yield Credit is also acting supportive of the market as are commodities.

All in all, all things considered, I am surprised by the broadly market supportive indications among leading indicators when judged by today's price action and NFP, when judged by 3C and what it has been saying, this is exactly what I'd expect.

Furthermore sector rotation is very interesting.

The Risk sectors' relative performance has been surprising today, Energy up, Basic Materials Up (which will help the averages as there are a lot of high beta and momentum stocks in the sector), Industrials up and FINANCIALS!

On the flight to safety side only Utilities have been in rotation, Healthcare and Staples have both been moving out of rotation, not what you'd expect on a day like this.

I'll be looking around for any area where there are still high probability trades.




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