Friday, April 5, 2013

Market Futures- After the BOj's first meeting, did they lose control?

That's the question that may indeed have the greatest effect on futures.After pledging to pump $1.4 trillion in to the economy, the question is being asked and plating out in FX futures so far, "Did Abe and Kuroda go to far?

 Right now Japanese Bonds, JGBs yields have blasted higher prompting circuit breakers on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in JGB futures trade. JGB's have fallen the largest amount since 2002 sending yields screaming higher on 10-year JGBs.

Here's what Yen Futures are looking like right now...
 Yen 1 min

 However that's a pretty positive looking divergence in the Yen on a more important 5 min chart.


In fact the 15 min chart has a leading positive divergence, is the Yen about to explode higher? If so, the BOJ lost control and the cost of carry will be insane.

The EUR/JPY and USD/JPY
 Both pairs exploded higher last night after the BOJ meeting, but they are starting to look like they may fall as the Yen looks like it could burst higher, it already has to some degree.

USD.JPY...

As to what a falling EUR/JPY or USD/JPY means for the market, just recall the change we have been watching in the longer term daily chart of the pairs.

 Remember the market trend from November or even January, the rising EUR/JPY was supportive of the market, the big move up recently is the BOJ move, but we may be looking at a Yen about to rocket higher if the BOJ truly lost control, that would send this pair lower and the effect it would have on the market, well the market traded higher with the pairs...

USD/JPY... it's still very early, but the initial moves in the Yen are not comforting for market bulls.

The 3C charts of the Yen above show a 1 min pullback on the initial move higher, perhaps it builds, but for now the 5 and 15 min are positive, that would suggest the Yen moves higher and the short term is just seeing  correction.

So far the market futures look like this, who knows what quick knee-jerk moves one of the Central Banks may pull to try to mitigate the effects of the BOJ losing control...

 ES 1 min doesn't really have any signals.

 ES 15 min is in line

 NQ 1 min looks like it's just starting to see a small positive divergence since this chart was captured.

 NQ 15 min has a decent size positive divergence in place.

 TF 1 min also looks like it may be turning slightly positive since this chart was captured.


TF 15 min has a pretty large positive divergence.

We'll see soon enough...

No comments: