Quick Market Update

Some of the variables to this positive divergence in the market concerning today was of course the NFP, but so far I think the market has made a pretty decent comeback all things considered (NFP sees biggest miss since 2009, Labor participation rate is at a 30-year low making the unemployment -U3 headline number sound a lot better than it actually is and this wasn't good, the real U.E rate considering the work force scam would be over 11%).

The second was the op-ex pin, this didn't use to be an event, only on the monthly expiration, but weeklies have become popular so every Friday seems to be an op-ex pin. In other words, the market, even if it is rearing to go, essentially can't until the Pin is completed and Wall St. makes their money on writing options and then pinning them so 90% of them expire worthless and Wall St. gets to keep all that premium.

As for the market right now, the SPY intraday looks like a pin, the charts in context of the market are VERY positive, much more than at any time this week and this hasn't been the typical 1-day options divergence that we have grown use to, this looks like a much stronger, faster move and the downside following it also looks much worse. The 10 and 15 (which wasn't even positive until today) look very strong.

The DIA intraday looks pretty strong in most cases and especially the most recent intraday divergences, the 1 min chart is flying. All in all the Dow is my least favorite of the averages, it's divergences are no where near as strong as the other averages, especially today's movement.

The QQQ 1 min intraday looks like a series of small corrections, this makes me think it's being pinned. Beyond the 1 min, the QQQ divergences to the upside are very strong in the timeframes they appear in and they seem to be migrating through longer timeframes so all in all, the Q's seem like they are gaining underlying strength.

Finally the IWM intraday charts look VERY much like a pin, I have noticed and pointed out that Thursday's tend to close close to Friday's pin and the IWM is less than half a percent from yesterday's close after being down significantly more earlier, again this seems like pinning behavior. The charts beyond intraday look pretty good, one of the biggest changes is in the 15 min chart that was showing no positive divergence before today, the movement there is a significant timeframe and thus flow of underlying trade and it has been quite spectacular, here's a chart.

From 15 min chart lows that haven't been seen since last summer 2012 to 10-day highs in less than a day (I guess there was a small positive forming yesterday), this is a VERY significant move on a very significant timeframe.

As for futures, ES and NQ both look like they are seeing minor adjustments to the intraday flow, again most probably to effect an options expiration pin, the R2K futures however are very strong, here's an example of the numerous small intraday ES adjustments.

 ES 1 min looks trend-less, this is the kind of intraday movement seen on option expiration as it seems market makers and specialists make a series of small adjustments to make the pin most effective.

However the 30 min chart shows several negative divergences, each one forming a top in ES trade and the last divergence being the worst and sending ES down the most, however today as ES hit lows for the week, we see the strongest positive divergence in nearly 2weeks of trade.