Monday, April 1, 2013

Opening Action

Thus far, the open has been volatile with the Index futures hitting a high on the week in early action, but following their pre-mmarket negative divergences lower in more recent action.

The EUR/USD as well as the single currency futures of the Euro and Dollar Index seem to confirm intraday distribution in the EUR/USD which seems to be pressuring the market early on.

 EUR/USD initial spike higher around 10 a.m., but still carrying a negative divergence.


 As confirmation the single future Euro currency also has the same negative divergence

 And the US Dollar Index has a positive divergence, all suggesting the EUR/USD move lower.

 After an initial move to the upside, ES followed its pre-market negative divergence lower, however the EUR/USD still sitting near the highs has provided some support to ES


 A closer look at the opening brief move higher in ES followed by a plunge.

NQ/NASDAQ 100 futures also following their pre-market intraday negative divergence lower.

Although both ES and NQ have moved lower as per their divergences, EUR/USD's position , which has not seen a move lower yet is providing some measure of support.

In the market averages opening action, the SPY has not seen any positive intraday confirmation and has moved lower thus far.

Most timeframes out to at least 15 min are weighing on the SPY with negative positioning.

The Q's have a little more near term 1 - 2 min chart support, at 3 min they are clearly negative, as well as 5 and 15 min.

The IWM looks the best thus far with intraday support or at least confirmation from 1-5 min with 10 and 15 min seeing progressively worse negative divergences.

The DIA has a bit less intraday support, it's more choppy, but 10 and 15 min charts are clearly negative.

It seems for the moment any way, EUR/USD's ability to hold on to initial gains are the key to early intraday support, keeping the markets from tumbling lower, I do doubt the ability of the pair to hold on too much longer.

I'll need to check the typical SPY levers/Arbitrage to see if there's anything else going on.


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