Friday, April 26, 2013

Strategic and Tactical Plan

I'm going to explain this first in case it happens or happens faster than I expect, remember the market is free from option expiration pins around 3 p.m. typically as most contracts have been closed/settled, so the market can start behaving more like it wants to without needing to worry about the pin.

So, as I already mentioned, I think there's a decent possibility that Monday we continue to finish this base area to finish the move up that was interrupted by today's op-ex pin.

The charts for a move higher soon have improved a lot today, but I do suspect we pullback a little bit before the close.

IF WE DO pullback a bit in to the close, I don't want to open new options positions yet, I'd rather miss the trade and be ready for the next set up (which should be the better one) than enter without having all my ducks in a row.

That being said, 2 or 3 times leveraged ETFs will allow me the ability to get some upside coverage in case this move to the upside comes sooner than expected  (early Monday-with no continuation of the basing procedure), since the positions will be partial, it also allows me the opportunity to add to them in case we do get some more basing Monday or allows me to enter more leveraged option positions.

Basically it's some upside exposure just in case, but not so much that a continuation in this range will cause any major draw-down or losses, it seems to be a good compromise for where we are right now.

I'll post charts trying to better explain it, but we have little time left today for this leg of positioning if you are interested, there's nothing wrong with patience either.

The positions I'd consider, especially if prices come down are 2-3x leveraged longs of the major averages, UPRO (3x long for the SPX), TQQQ (3x long for NASDAQ 100), URTY (3x leveraged long ETF for the Russell 2000).

I only want partial positions, maybe 1/3 to 1/2, so normal full position size is $15k, then these I want at $5k to $7500 at max and max is only if prices come down lowering risk and signals are good, which if I post them as new trades, signals will be good.


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