Wednesday, May 15, 2013

AAPL Update

Most of my interest in AAPL now is in trending trades or equity short positions, but for any with Puts in AAPL, I do believe we will see a bounce at least intraday, it's nothing that changes the trend as far as the signals go now and can be used to set up new positions, either equity shorts or new puts when the time comes, this is just the normal volatility and nothing unusual, how it effects Index volatility remains to be seen.

Here are the charts...
 AAPL 1 min-remember the accumulation in AAPL started late in the day as they were trying to regain NDX 3k, it has continued this morning, the flat price range is what tells me the probabilities are higher for a bounce.

The 2 min chart has migration so an intraday bounce at minimum seems likely. Again note the flat price range that we often see with accumulation which throws most traders off thinking nothing is going on there, that's where we see accumulation or distribution most often as the market makers/specialists are trying to work a stable VWAP to fill an order.

 The 3 min chart thus far hasn't seen any migration which suggests a limited bounce, that doesn't mean it won't see a positive divergence as it would be the next timeframe to turn, but as of now, it's not there so a gap fill at least would be likely for any of you with puts.

The longer term AAPL 60 min is a counter trend rally or bear market rally, they are impressive, but this one looks to have ended. Note there was no accumulation at the bottom (yellow) that ended up on the 60 min chart, that's because it's still a bear market position and they aren't putting that much money in to the position, that tells you how long it takes them to get out if they can't put that much money in to the bounce.

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