Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Market Update-Market Key-For Now

I'll go in to greater detail later , but now we have a key ingredient in what moves the market. The divergences in the Index futures are extreme, I'll start with those, this is along the lines of "aggressively sell or short" on any opportunity, it happened as expected in HYG yesterday although it should have made a far larger move. These aren't small divergences in Index futures.

 ES (SPX futures) -Note in yellow there was no accumulation in ES, something else moved it, not the typical accumulation cycles.

 NQ (NASDAQ 100 futures) which already lost significant ground since the divergence

 TF negative divergence

Here's where it gets interesting...
 I put the Yen next to the SPX, note that when the Yen (orange) breaks below its trendline today, the SPX breaks out and as long as the Yen moves lower, the SPX moves higher, look at the top area.

This is an updated zoomed in chart on the same chart...
Here it's the SPY (green) and yen (red), the same top area, they are almost mirror opposites of each other. I thought this would happen, but on a large scale, not down to intraday movement.

When you see the other risk assets and how they refuse to participate, thins start falling in to place.

Yen Futures 1 min went negative on a pullback divergence, when it started going positive, the Index futures started going negative.

 The larger 5 min chart with a leading positive divergence off the last pullback that sent the SPX higher, this is why the negative divergences on the Market Indexes are so negative.

 The 30 min Yen has an even larger positive

But if you think about the larger market picture, the leading indicators, breadth, 3C charts and other things suggesting the market is in big trouble in this area, look at the 4 hour Yen chart, this would be a huge move up, also note why it has been going down, the market has had no headwinds.

It looks like this is starting to change as it did with the USD pullback, now at new highs which I think will also be a large factor. I'll try to show you this in greater detail later.



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