AAPL Update

Here's yesterday's AAPL Update, I've been trying to remain patient with AAPL and wait for good signals. My opinion is that AAPL is in a bear market (AAPL's own bear market) rally. There could be more upside on this rally, but for now it looks like it will come down. If I see accumulation in to the move down, I'll close the newly opened positions at a profit and wait to re-establish a new CORE short position in AAPL.

Since the update above contains all of the trade data, I'm just going to show you why I like AAPL today as a put and equity short.

I started with the longer term charts because a counter trend rally is different in many ways from a normal rally or even the whacky manipulative rallies we have seen the last 4 years. First they tend to be very strong because to survive and complete their mission, they need people to believe in them, they are almost ALWAYS stronger than a bull market rally, thus they are REALLY fun to play. Also they have more or a reversal event than a process. The traders that are in the bear market have already pretty much positioned themselves, it's not like a new top where they are moving out of one position and sliding in to another, that is largely what the "process/time" is about in a reversal; not these guys though, they know where they are, what they are doing and honestly, short sellers tend to be some of the best informed, savviest traders out there.

Take a look at the 1929 Dow Crash and the first bear market rally of an additional 5 during the bear market.

Dow Jones Industrial Average 1929-May of 1930.

"A" the original Crash, "B" the bear market rally which  rallied +52%, that's pretty impressive and if you made a ton of money in the roaring twenties, you might be inclined to think the 1929 crash was over and the 30's were about to start roaring-this is the secret to the bear market rally's strength. "C" There's very little process for such a strong rally, iyt's almost an immediate reversal.

So I want to look at AAPL possibly in the same light, we'll know as it declines, if it sees accumulation then the bear market rally isn't over. If you disagree with me that AAPL is in a bear market, than what would you call a 45% decline and 315 points in 7 months? A Pullback?

 The 30 min chart has signs of a possible negative divergence, what we need to see is that this came from migration from the timeframes below or faster than 30 min.

The next fastest timeframe-15 min showing accumulation and a stronger 3C negative divergence, so far we have migration.

 The 10 min chart is even more defined, again, more migration.

The 5 min chart,  so I think the migration issue is settled, there has been solid distribution in to AAPL's price highs, bulls may think AAPL is coming back, but this is why I say, "Price is deceiving", it's going up, but they majority of the institutional action is selling, not buying, I know that doesn't make  sense from a supply/demand or Technical Analysis standpoint, but that's how the market works.

 Intraday on the 1 min, note how much worse today's action is right after a head fake move in yellow.

Here's the 2 min, distribution at higher highs.

That's why we're short AAPL and may stay that way.