Wednesday, May 8, 2013

AMZN P/L and Forward Looking Plan




 I remember why I opened the calls in AMZN, not sure why I only have 1 contract (although yesterday I did have quite a few problems with orders going through). In any case at this fill of $9.73 the position made almost 16%, that's not bad considering how small the move has been thus far.

The 1 min chart doesn't look good for near term additional upside, that makes the AMZN call no longer attractive as I'd rather re-enter (if it comes to that) after a consolidation (and not eat the losses from time decay) or after a pullback (and not eat the losses from that-I don't use options as a long term lottery ticket, they are a tool to take advantage of good signals in trades that otherwise would not have the profit potential and would cause opportunity cost on that sum of money in an equity long).


There are a lot of signals on this 10-min chart through a trade range, I highlight several head fake moves before reversals in which 3C clearly called them head fake moves-which are some of my favorite high probability/low risk entries, but emotionally the entry is extremely hard for most people as you are shorting a new/breakout high or buying a new/breakdown low. The point being the overall position of 3C during late April/Early May through present is a leading positive divergence, the short term negative divergence to the far right inside the white box (leading positive divergence) tells us the highest probabilities are still for a near term pullback with a continued move to the upside.

This is what I'm looking for to add to our already profitable AMZN Core Equity Short position, I want a move above the range, that's where retail will be interested, that's where smart money can sell/short AMZN with some demand that they need. It wasn't only a short term positive that opened the AMZN Calls, but a Tweezer bottom candlestick reversal pattern I CLEARLY remember pointing out (in white).

All in all though, I want to be short AMZN (at the right places-for instance the last entry still has us at a profit).

This 3 day LONG TERM 3C chart is BEAUTIFUL. At the yellow arrow it shows NO ACCUMULATION, at least not enough to show up here and the move up fails, then we get a strong leading positive divergence over 3 YEARS! Look what happens next. Yes, they had to start off-loading AMZN at much lower prices being they had such a large position, but when you have a 3-day leading negative divergence, it's time to look at being short AMZN.

Let the trade come to you.

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