Wednesday, May 8, 2013

UNG Update-if you like, you might not have long

This is Monday's UNG Update, it shows why we sold at the price highs on a 5+% 1-day move and why we were right to do that on that day, it shows what we expected to happen and how it happened. It shows how the trade came to us offering a low cost, low risk, high probability entry/add-to.

This is yesterday's -2% move down and what I suspected was a head fake, here's the post in which I not only wasn't concerned at all, but thought it was a decent place to add to UNG.

Here's the updated charts for today... I still think UNG is a good buy/add-to right here, but remember this is a long term position so make sure you want that and make sure you give it the room it needs over a longer term trade.

 The candlesticks and their smaller bodies alone tell you something about UNG's pullback, that it's loosing momentum and this is likely a tight range accumulation area.

Yesterday's lower low in yellow.
 Even with yesterday's move, a reversal is a process, not an event and as such, a nice rounding bottom like this is what we like to see, yesterday actually made the bottom look better, volume is low in the price range, typical of accumulation environments.

 I'm pointing out another head fake move, you may not see it as a big deal or a head fake move, but when price moves above resistance, whether short or longer term, traders pay attention and react, but even more importantly is how the Head Fake happened right before the reversal and did exactly what a head fake move is suppose to do, look at the downside momentum from the head fake and subsequently, this is the power and reason head fake moves re such a great timing tool. As for the base area, the 1 min 3C chart is very clear about what's happening there.

The 3 min chart/migration, but more importantly, look at the strength of yesterday's 3C divergence at the head fake break below recent lows, this is one of the reasons for these moves, which made yesterday a VERY high probability, low cost,. low risk trade, but they are difficult emotionally, you have to retrain yourself to look at objective data and take emotion out of the decision making process.
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Overall, the 30 min trend.

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