Monday, May 6, 2013

Futures / Strategy Update

As I'm sure you've noticed, most positions today (especially on the short or Put option side) have been rather generic, IWM, QQQ, XLF, rather than specific, like GOOG, AMZN, NFLX, etc which are all short positions I'm interested in. However in looking at theoir charts, yes there are short term negative divergences, but they are not quite there for what I'm looking for with regard to the core short positions and this could be very much because of a scenario such as described last night, a move down to lure in the shorts, then a move back up to force them to cover, thereby establishing the buy-side demand in to higher prices that Wall Street needs and really was the only reason for this last bounce.

I believe, whether this scenario or another, when we get back to an upside move, by that time the individual names will have seen their charts fall apart enough to warrant positions in them.

For now I'd rather stick with a broad, generic like Financials rather than GS or QQQ rather than AAPL.

As for futures...
 ES has seen even more deterioration  in to the afternoon.

NQ is negative and has a horrible looking 5 min chart as well, which is more important and finally...

As mentioned several times today, the negative leading divergence in TF (Russell 2000 Futures) or IWM, is clearly much worse than any of the others.

No comments: