Monday, May 6, 2013

UVXY Long Equity Position

I'm going with about a 1/2 normal size position here, in other words what would normally be speculative, but keep in mind the leverage here.

I think it is possible if not likely that a slightly better price comes along, but as the market gets more volatile, it also gets more unpredictable, especially in affairs such as timing.

I'd personally not take a position that is too large and makes you uncomfortable should you have draw down. Or you may want to consider VXX which doesn't have the leverage UVXY has.

Just looking at the chart alone, this is not quite at the "U" shape we usually see in a reversal, this is a bit more "V" shaped and that suggests a little more time and possibly downside completing the process of a reversal rather than an event, but again, the unpredictability factor rises as the market becomes more volatile.

 Normally a reversal has a bit more rounding in the bottom as reversals are typically more often a process rather than an event, this is in large part because of the time it take Wall Street to re-adjust, they can't do it on the fly like we can. Still, I'd rather be a little early than try to scurry around at the last minute trying to get positions in place.

UVXY's very impressive intraday leading positive divergence. I used the other Volatility / VIX ETFs managed by other funds with different leverage and different long/short orientation to confirm UVXY.

 XIV is the non-leveraged polar opposite of VXX and as such, should have the opposite signal as VXX (as well as UVXY) which it does with a 2 min leading negative divergence.

VXX 5 min leading positive divergence.

I can go further out in the charts, but for the trade I envision (fairly quick), I don't need anything more than this.

No comments: