This morning, although we only took 2 new trades for a move up, GOOG Calls and IWM Calls (by the way, glad I didn't chose QQQ's as they don't appear to have as much 3C support and I will be updating AAPL soon as I think that is a cause-we did leave AAP Puts open) we are still ranked number #4 and # 2 on the Options Tracking Portfolio weekly and monthly (respectively) this morning, showing that our call to close the market average calls and open even just two call positions has kept us on top of the crowd which tells me the crowd was over run by the emotion of GREED.
They saw some nice gains on Puts and expected we'd see another big move down this morning (we may close and reverse our positions intraday today, but based on objective information, not greed or fear) and stuck with them only to find their profits disappeared.
So far here's the expected move in the Euro and the $USD which will be market positive and as mentioned with only a cursory look at leading indicators, HY Credit was already performing better on a relative basis vs the SPX first thing this morning, telling me it is either being used as a risk on (short term) trading vehicle with its large liquidity or is being used as one of the 3 levers to manipulate the market intraday.
A large relative positive divergence in the single currency future of the Euro as it is at the lows for the week.
On the other-side of that equation, the $USDX is seeing a deep leading negative divergence off the pre-market relative negative as it hit the highs for the week, both divergences imply a move that is market positive.
ES had an early morning positive divergence and since moving higher has managed to stay in line or better, I can't say the same for NASDAQ futures.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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