So Far...

Our move to close Puts in all of the Indices / Major Averages late yesterday at lows and in to downside momentum was absolutely the right call, as were our two new positions opened yesterday, IWM and GOOG calls.

 This is nothing to celebrate yet, but at least thus far we are on the right side of the trade with this late day GOOG Call position initiated for what should be a short term correction, but probably a volatile one. Remember we have the normal Friday op-ex (even weeklies now are pinned) and as such, we usually see Thursday's close pretty close to the max-pain pin level.

IWM so far is moving the right way for our call position, but this is extremely early and this is a.m. trade which is the most deceptive of the day as retail limit orders and stops by traders with a 9 to 5 get run out of town.


So far the SPY Arbitrage isn't out as it is delayed, but I do see HYG (probably manipulation), although it's possible, though not highly likely that it is short term organic demand as a risk asset for a market bounce; so I do expect we will see the SPY Arbitrage in the positive (green).

ES caught down to the CONTEXT model yesterday and as such is showing risk assets (and they use a lot in this model) are generally performing as expected for where ES is right now, suggesting it is fairly valued, which never lasts for long.

CONTEXT for ES at fair value.

Ooop, look at that, while I was writing the SPY Arbitrage came out and I was correct, GREEN.