Thursday, May 2, 2013

The Quickly Shifting Sands of Currencies

First we'll look at the single currency futures, then the pairs.

Here's a little legend to help you understand what currencies mean what for the market (Generally speaking, there are times when different policies or changing carry trades create caveats, but this is pretty accurate as of now).

Rising Currencies / Market Relation:

Yen=Bearish
EUR=Bullish
AUD=Bullish
$USD/$USDX=Bearish

If the same currencies are falling, the reverse market relationship exists.

As for Pairs, Rising Pair / Market Relationship (this gets more complicated, but holds generally true)

EUR/USD=Bullish
AUD/JPY=Bullish
EUR/JPY=Bullish
USD/JPY=Bullish (*This one I might have some doubts about, as a carry trade the pair rising is generally good, however a rising $USD is a market negative and shifting Japanese economic policy, well may shift. *In any case, the pair rising has been supportive of the market rally from the end of last year through this year).

Single Currency Futures-*Divergences should be obvious
 EUR 1 min

AUD 1 min

$USDX 1 min

Yen 1 min

Yen 5 min

Yen 30 min

However the long term trend on the Yen's 4 hour (above ) and daily (not seen) is very positive suggesting the primary trend for the Yen will be moving up, not good for Japan, not good for the market.

FX Pairs...
 EUR/USD 1 min

EUR/JPY 1 min (Carry trade)

USD/JPY 1 min (Carry trade)

AUD/JPY 1 min (Carry pair)

No comments: