Thursday, June 27, 2013

GLD & SLV & Fractals

I'll try to make this quick, most of you have heard me refer to the market as "Fractal" meaning the same concepts that apply to a intraday chart will apply to a daily chart, the same concepts that apply to a 1 hour long price pattern will apply to a 8 month long similar price pattern. The reason we see this and if you look around you will see it, I believe is 100% because human nature doesn't change. The fear or greed in an investment length position are the same as a swing trade or a day trade, emotions and  sentiment (which are often indistinguishable) move the market, that's the one honest thing I think Cramer said in his Wall St. Confidential video with Aaron Task in which he admitted the many ways he manipulated the market as a hedge fund manager and how rampant it is to the point that he says, "If you aren't willing to do it, you shouldn't be in the game". The video is harder and harder to find,m but it's out there and that's the most useful and honest Cramer has ever been.

In any case as it relates to head fake moves being some of the last events we see before a reversal (the reasons why are spelled out in the two articles I already mentioned earlier today) and thus make for a good timing marker (this of course is subjective to the timeframe you are trading), both GLD and SLV look to be high probability head fake moves, I've wanted a little more confirmation, before possibly bringing them up for consideration, but so far one of the first things that is noticeable is SLW -Silver Wheaton vs SLV and ion gold's side, GG (Gold Corp) vs GLD.

Of course there are other indications that are more direct and important to me. If we get the confirmation as I suspect, it will be a hard position to enter, but at a great price point, actually lower risk as your stop can be just below intraday lows and if I confirm and I bring it up, the probabilities will be high as well.

 GLD, the reasons for a head fake move are there, evident in volume, again the concept is scalable or fractal in nature for the same reasons in any timeframe.


The same in SLV

 Here's Gold Corp in green vs. GLD in red, there's obvious better relative performance in GC and thus a divergence between the two.

And SLW in green vs SLV in red, again better relative performance in SLW and thus a divergence between those two (relative performance).

I need to watch because if it does as I expect, it will happen quickly.

No comments: