Gold / GLD Trade Idea Follow Up...

Friday I mentioned GLD as a very short term, speculative long position. Right after that post I opened a Weekly, June 14th $133.50 GLD Call.

Here's an update, I still like GLD as a short term trade, maybe more later, but short term for now. I think it needs some leverage to make it worthwhile, that's why I chose Call options, but there are some long leveraged GLD ETFs that you might consider as well (just most of them are pretty low volume/liquidity) such as: UGLD (3x long, this is an ETN, not ETF and volume is quite low), UGL (2x long Gold, volume is a little better), DGL (3x long and very low volume), FSG which I really like as it is 2x gold bull while also being a 2x SPX bear ETF, the problem is it is ULTRA-LOW liquidity/volume, finally DGP which is a 2x long ETN (not an ETF, which I believe are treated differently come tax season, but I'm not a tax expert, you should check on that yourself with someone who is qualified) the volume here is low, but probably the best of the leveraged Gold ETFs.

Charts...

I put up equity positions for GLD today because I believe the time to enter a option position was Friday, options are priced (generally speaking) according to the Black-Scholes options model (there are some discrepancies in pricing, take the "options smile" for instance). The model takes many things in to account so it's much different than seeing a stock at a certain price and that's what its worth, for example, this is partly what the model looks like...

 Longer term GLD Daily chart going from a solid Primary Bull market to a large triangle in 2011 which we called a top back then and expected at least an intermediate and maybe a primary bear market, we so far have at least an intermediate bear market at the red arrow with a recent counter trend rally in white.

The 10 min GLD chart suggests it will at least fill the gap, this is why I opened a weekly call posiiton Friday.

Very short term/intraday on the 1 min it looks like GLD will pullback which gives anyone who wants to try this speculative/short term long trade a chance to enter at better prices.

 The 15 min chart shows no positive at all like the 10 min, this is why I think the move in GLD right now is capped as a short term move to fill the gap, maybe some, but there doesn't seem to be much more as this 15 min chart shows.

The yellow trendlines are head fake areas, an upside head fake RIGHT before GLD moved down sharply and we have a downside head fake move right now as 3C is positive in the 10 min, as the 1 min goes positive, GLD and the market should make their move.

FOR THOSE INTERESTED IN WHETHER SLV LOOKS THE SAME AND IS A LONG TRADE POSSIBILITY, I'd say that it's a possibility, but this is already speculative, the GLD charts look 4x better than the SLV charts for a short term move. I'm sure SLV will move in sympathy to some extent, but if there were no GLD signal, I would never take the SLV signal on its own, so I prefer to stick with gold for this.

Here are the Gold E-mini Futures.

 This is the 15 min chart, like ES 15 min, etc, it looks as if it will make a decent ,move higher, but it does seem to be capped.

 The 60 min Gold futures is still leading negative suggesting any upside move here is just a bounce and not any structural strength for a reversal of the current prevailing trend , bearish.

The daily gold futures chart shows it may have some promise kin building a base, but that trade is a ways off still, it's worth keeping an eye on, but not a longer term long trade yet.