Monday, June 10, 2013

Situation Update- Seems to be Resolving

This is one of the fun or stomach turning things about a market like this one where it is in the cycle process, things move very fast, surprises pop up out of thin air as emotions are lifted to the point of being "Frazzled" and there's a lot to learn about human nature and thus the markets or the markets and thus human nature, they are one in the same, the thing is you see all of this in a compressed timeframe.; what might take a month to see and learn under normal market conditions, you may see in a day.

I hate putting out posts like the last 3, but my job is not to tell you what I think will happen, it's to show you  what is happening and go from there. My opinion is irrelevant, it's the market's opinion that matters and that's what we are trying to dig up every day.

I would be remiss if I didn't  warn you of a situation that was developing (even if I thought it was just noise).

Here's what's happening so far as this "seems" to bee resolving to some degree, as for  why, I honestly don't know, but there's usually a reason.

 This is what the SPY daily chart looks like now, resistance was briefly overcome and then failed which is even better psychologically for this set up than resistance being tested, but never overcome like  last Tuesday. Ideally the deeper the close at this point, the better, a bearish engulfing candle would be ideal.

However, I don't have the depth of the book, I don't know where the stops are, how well the bears are swallowing the hook so there may be reasons for what went on that we can't understand.

What matters most are the 5 min charts as they are where the highest probabilities are for this bear trap continuing to develop.

The USD/JPY (which the market typically moves with) was the initial source of my concern as it was leading positive on a 1 min chart, it has come down since then, it's still not really bearish, but better than continuing to move in to more positive territory.

We should remember this is only a 1 min chart which is typically only intraday movement, but whenever a new divergence or trend starts, it usually starts with the 1 min chart and works it's way through the longer charts as it strengthens so any change has to be watched.

The Yen is now starting to lead positive which is probably why the USD/JPY's positive divergence started to deteriorate.

 The IWM 3 min chart is about as far as the intraday positive went, as I said, new trends, even intraday will start on the 1 min charts, so...

The IWM 1 min chart has obviously degraded since my concerns were first posted.

The QQQ 3 min positive, very small, but there is about how far the divergence moved, again...

 The move to in line from positive is a step down.

SPY 3 min positive is as far as it went...

The 5 min is really where the highest probabilities and cleanest trend are, it is clearly negative with no question.

The 1 min chart has also started falling apart here so it seems whatever that was, for whatever reason, it is now resolving.

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