Wednesday, June 5, 2013

Market Update-I'll Probably Look for Some Last Minute Positions

I'm nearly convinced now of a couple of things, 1) the inverse H&S was purposefully taken out for the reasons I cited, 2) that is market makers accumulating 3) There has been no or almost no institutional selling today, which brings back to all of those charts that all had the same stronger leading positive today, which makes me want to look around and see what I might get before the open tomorrow.

 First CONTEXT's model for ES says ES (SPX futures) are about 12 points undervalue - remember that-risk assets.

HIO as a sentiment indicator is showing very little fear through mid morning and the rest of the day.

FCT is showing even less as it moves up.

This is really interesting because the Yen/SPX correlation has been nearly perfect, 1.0, but here the Yen makes a lower high and the SPX makes a lower low-that's not the correlation, but that is the EXACT time that inverse H&S bottom I was worried about was taken off the chart.

Yields are a magnet for equities, that's a move above the triangle as we have expected.

Remember other assets, this is High Yield Credit, the very illiquid kind, HYG I understand can't move or it screws up the arbitrage, but this is not part of the arb, if HY credit is being bought as thin as it is, someone on the institutional side os pretty darn confident of a good move to the upside.

 ES continues to make new leading highs and we know it's not retail, I'm almost sure that would be middle men.

 TF and NQ are doing the same...


Here's another Doozy...
ES hasn't moved toward VWAP once today, if you are a market maker or specialist filling orders, you wouldn't keep your job selling below VWAP, but you would be very interested in buying at the lower SD of VWAP, that's exactly where institutional money buys or the middle men fill for them.

That's a lot of smoking guns.

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