I personally want to pick up options while they have momentum, for instance for a call I want the underlying stock to have downside momentum, no one wants to buy calls at a time like that, that's when I want to buy them IF I have reason to.
I want to sell in to momentum as well, this time as it is moving up, usually at the first hint momentum is slowing as profits start dissipating as momentum slows, even if you have a strong momentum move early and sell there and then you have a weak move higher, even though the call or underlying is higher, most of the time your profits will be significantly lower because options are priced on a model that takes different things in to consideration, it's nothing like stocks.
In any case, for me, in most cases the time to get in to options was earlier when it is the hardest, but stocks and ETFs (esp. leveraged) can still make decent trades.
Take VXX (and I'll show you that same concept from earlier AGAIN).
In a post 1 or 2 back I showed you VXX and how it gave the exact same signal as a lot of different assets that are vastly different (financials, market averages, volatility, treasuries). Here it is again, the point being the negative divergence with a head fake move which is out timing signal, already in place.
I wouldn't take out puts here in volatility right now any way, but if I were to, it would be while they had upside momentum and I had this 3C signal.
However XIV which is the inverse/opposite of VXX can be traded long, but more interestingly look how it too gives the exact same signal just like the SPY and all the other assets, I included the SPY below so you can see.
In any case, prices are still good here although it didn't make a new low like I'd prefer to see.
The SPY giving the same signal, all 3 assets that are very different in leverage, in management companies, in asset grouping are all showing the same thing, that's a find on a day like today, that's why I call 3C as I do, "Compare, compare, compare"
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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