Sentiment

Whatever it was, planned or not (and the reason I say this is market makers and specialists will load up before a move, they need the inventory to make money so it's more than a little strange, but it worked from some Tweets representative of sentiment...

From Sam (Thanks again)...

well that worked, bears are emboldened

Here are the latest tweets:

"woow this is more extended than i thought $SPX"

" tankage continues with volume (still holding rest of the short positions)"

"1586ish good to have on radar"

I see tweets all the time proving they have no concept of "big money"

It seems most if it not all misunderstand the inner workings of "big money".  Traders seem to think volume spikes are them taking positions and don't realize the time it takes them to take a position, here is one tweet among dozens I see everyday:

"i dont think big $$$ is stepping in front of this freight train . they will wait for the leak of numbers on friday".

Sam is 100% correct, this is the biggest fallacy of smart money taking positions, "The volume spike".

I can give you 100 different reasons why and usually do, but one of the most deadly is the Predatory HFTs that feed off institutional orders and because of their speed, front run them. Funds will break up big orders in to small ones and try to fill at VWAP, if they put an order that large out, the HFTs that look for the small orders called "Pinging for icebergs" so they know a large order is being ffilled and front run those. The net result is smart money would not only drive prices against themselves as the order goes through the bid/ask stack, but HFTs would be in front of them selling to them at worse and worse prices.