Monday, July 1, 2013

AAPL Update & P/L

I went ahead and pulled the trigger on UVXY, the momentum looked to be about done and that's all I'm really interested in with options (in this case).

Here's what the TICK looks like now.
If a market is rising, the TICK should be rising, it's  all NYSE stocks that are advancing less the decliners so when the market moves to a higher high and the TICK doesn't, you have fewer stocks supporting the move. In this case we went from +1000 to the negatives, but more importantly the channel broke. As far as the UVXY option (call) entry, if the SPY is just going to move sideways for the next 15 or 30 mins, I'm not gaining much by waiting, in fact likely losing a bit of the edge.

As for AAPL, it has some very nice momentum this morning, definitely outperforming the market, but again there's only so much it can do without the market behind it and it did quite a bit today, I really like AAPL, I just think it made sense to take the gains and look for a pullback to re-enter at a lower price.



At the fill of $14.40 that gives the position a gain of +18%. This isn't the Lotto ticket 100-300% options gains that you hear about, but many times you don't hear the end of the story either with a blown up options account. For me they're just a tool to make a high probability position that may not otherwise have the potential rewards to make it worthwhile. 18% for a 1-day move makes it worthwhile and if I hold the same option for a bit longer, I'm sure it will be fine as well, but why should I if 
I know it's likely I can trade around a pullback?

 I almost didn't post this AAPL 1 min chart that is in line because it almost gives the wrong impression.


Take the 2 min trend, clearly strong, positive, but take the same chart intraday...

You can see that the 2 min chart not only hasn't confirmed as the 1 min did (meaning the move to the upside doesn't have as much support as it seems -this is intraday/short term only that we are talking about), but add to that a VERY parabolic move in AAPL and without 2 min positives confirming it, that move starts to look very fragile intraday so taking the gains while the momentum and buyers are still there makes sense to me here.


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