Monday, July 1, 2013

UNG Update

I've been looking at this one and trying to make a decision, I think I've found a good compromise.

 As far as a reversal process goes, UNG is pretty close to proportionate, but it needs to be established that this is an upside reversal process- as many of you know, I consider UNG and likely some individual stocks in the NG area to be looking at a long term secular bull market, UNG is still well within its base that is considerable in size.

We will look at some other individual stocks as well as I talked about over the last week or so.

 I looked at the normal 3C charts for UNG and they were pretty much in line with the idea of a reversal, very , very short term I had some doubts about, but that is actually where the compromise is.

This is a version of 3C I don't use often, it's really trend only and lacks the detail of the other versions, but is designed to be that way, to uncover the trend and remove the details that can also make up noise.

I probably could have stopped at the 60 min char, the trends here are pretty clear and would be behind the idea of a reversal process currently.

Although the version is not designed for detail, the 15 min chart is very clear in the area of the reversal.

The 10 and 5 min charts are as well.

So considering the 60 min and the 15 min which brings us closer to an actionable trade, I decided that in order to add anything to UNG I'd need to see a head fake move first. The range for accumulation is there and the range is clear enough that it should be able to draw a head fake move or a stop run, even though it seems that a large nest of stops were hit recently.

The other possibility is to wait for a move above the range, I'm not as comfortable with that and either way there needs to be confirmation so I'll be setting alerts for both sides of the range, but it does look like the trend is favorable here.

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