ES / Futures

ES, like FSLR seems to give us the same kind of trend expectations.

I've been noticing and pointing out recently that signals like a 15 min negative divergence that in a much less volatile time may have led to a -2% decline over a week or so is now leading to similar size declines of advances based on the divergence, but the time period itself is much more condensed, what might have normally taken 5+ days can now happen in 1 or 2 The reversal process between moves is still largely in effect, but even they are getting shorter because even at a shorter length they are still proportionate to the character of the market because of increased volatility.

In any case, ES or the SPX E-mini futures

 Intraday 1 min chart

ES 15 min chart, this looks to me like a pretty strong correction, but it still seems like a correction with some cap on it because...

Even at a faster 30 min chart, the size and strength of the positive is just screaming more upside.

I'm not EXACTLY sure why I'm not as excited to trade this move in the market, I've felt like this since first identifying the probability Thursday which made perfect sense from a Window Dressing P.O.V. considering that any trades for the end of quarter had to be in by Wednesday, so it's not surprising character changed Wednesday, it's not surprising AAPL's price action flipped late last week because as I said, if I were a fund manager I'm thinking about two things, 1) I don't want AAPL on my books for Q2 as it has not been a stellar performer, but 2) I know AAOL is about to turn its trend and I want to be onboard so as soon as Wednesday has passed, I can move right back in to AAPL and take care of both concerns.

In any case, my reluctance to trade this move in any size has something to do with concentrating more on higher probability moves and staying focussed on the prize, but there was also something in my gut that I can't explain, perhaps from looking at a number of charts and having a slightly unsteady feeling.

However now that I think about this week with a half day Wednesday, the market closed Thursday, no one from Wall St. (other than essential personnel) is likely to cut a 5 day weekend short to come in Friday, it tells me algos will largely be in charge of a thin market, that's just unpredictable volatility I don't want a part of, whether they are head line scanners (even though Economic Data is rather light for the US this week) or they are correlation/arbitrage or who knows what.

I think this is the reason I felt in my gut (and perhaps just from looking at a lot of charts), that this isn't the time or place I want to be making any big moves.

In any case, the point is that with this week as chopped up as it is, it makes it REALLY difficult to say when those divergences complete. I'd guess the downside move won't see the upside reversal until humans are back in the office, but that doesn't mean the entire week is down, there can be a lot of chop when algos that are programmed to follow one thing and don't have any discretion are running a low liquidity market.

I'd say if there were a time to lay a bit low, this is it unless something is screaming "Buy" or "Short me!"