Monday, July 22, 2013

AMZN

I'll put up charts of AMZN later, the point I wanted to make is AMZN is in that area of an overall top, we expected >$300 to be a psychological magnet and it was.

The reversal "process" looks really good in AMZN, it's in the right place. There's a lot of intraday volatility and I think chances are better than 50/50 that it makes another move toward the top of the "Rounding" process.

I like to try to get timing as close as I can with very strong signals, that's where options come in. However if I was someone who maybe only had a few chances a day to look at the market and I had good risk management and wasn't concerned with hitting the top, but more concerned with having a good position that a month or several months down the road would be doing well for me, AMZN is in the spot or area.

This is where the market gets very difficult for us particularly because we have to choose between the "Best signals" possible or perhaps missing the trade.

In every other situation except when the market is as ugly as it is now and could take out several weeks (or more) of trade with a single gap down, I'd be patient and say, "If this doesn't do what I want, I'll just wait for the next". Now that luxury is not there so much and it becomes a more difficult choice.

Phasing in to positions is an option, your risk management plan has to be in place first. If you are watching the market every minute like me, then entering an AMZN right now will probably drive you nuts, but if you aren't watching every intraday swing, it's a lot easier to handle.

I'll get charts up later, but the disparity between short/intraday positives and long leading negatives that are huge is growing very wide. 

This isn't so much a "I want to be as right as I can, I want to show patience" as it is, "I don't want to miss great trades because I'm lost in the lines" (too myopic).

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