Monday, July 22, 2013

NFLX Update

NFLX is VERY temppting here as a short equity (new or add to position if you have the room in your risk management), I featured some charts of NFLX last night and I'm definitely feeling an itchy finger, but this is just too clean, there's a great head fake area set up so I'm just trying to figure out the end game.

If I was entering a new NFLX longer term short equity (not options), I probably wouldn't care about a transient head fake move, the bigger picture at this point is what I'd be more focussed on. For me though as an add or an options position, the end game is more important.

Here's the proportional reversal process I talk about, NFLX is a great example of the process, not a reversal event, it just doesn't happen that way except in rare circumstances.

 15 min with the 4 stages or at least the first 3, the reversal process, the only thing missing is a head fake move sticking up out of that rounding top like a chimney.

The 1 min chart that improved late Friday seems to be in line now, it wasn't worth much.

The 5 min chart is interesting, it's already started giving up (deeper 3C negative), I want to see if and how fast this moves.

The 10 min of course.

The 15 you already saw above.

At the 30 min NFLX's fate is pretty much sealed at least for a sub-intermediate to intermediate trend.

And the 60 min is like a lot of charts, the first leg to the left is fairly strong and the second leg to the right, whether price is higher or lower, is much weaker as far as 3C goes and this is a 60 min chart so this is not good for NFLX.

I still have to believe it makes some run above the $270.30 area.

Other than that for my tastes, I think this is in a good area for the bigger picture.

No comments: